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August 20. 2012 8:04PM

Banks use savings stockpile to purchase more treasuries

NEW YORK — The gap between bank deposits and loans is growing at the fastest pace in two years, providing lenders with more funds to buy bonds and temper the biggest selloff in treasuries since 2010.

As deposits increased 3.3 percent to $8.88 trillion in the two months ended July 31, business lending rose 0.7 percent to $7.11 trillion, Federal Reserve data show. The record gap of $1.77 trillion has expanded 15 percent since May, the biggest similar-period gain since July 2010. Banks have already bought $136.4 billion in treasury and government agency debt this year, more than double the $62.6 billion in all of 2011, pushing their holdings to an all-time high of $1.84 trillion.

Faced with a slowing economy, unemployment above 8 percent for more than three years and regulations forcing them to hold more and higher-quality assets, banks are lending at below pre-recession levels. The bond purchases help explain why even after rising this month, 10-year note rates are about half the 3.5 percent median forecast of 43 economists in a Bloomberg survey a year ago.

“Bank deposits continue to explode and in turn they continue to buy treasuries as the economy loses momentum, inflation is trending down, Europe continues to hang over our heads and political uncertainty reigns” said Michael Mata, a money manager in Atlanta at ING Investment Management Americas, which oversees about $160 billion. “There is no reason for interest rates to climb in any meaningful way any time soon.”

While the gap has narrowed to $1.75 trillion as of Aug. 8 as lending of $7.12 trillion trailed $8.87 trillion in deposits, the gap is more than 17 times the $100 billion average in the decade before credit markets seized up, Fed data show.

Commercial and industrial lending reached a peak of $1.61 trillion in October 2008, a month after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. As the credit crisis deepened, loans tumbled to $1.2 trillion two years later, before recovering to $1.46 trillion Aug. 1.

The recent rise isn't keeping up with record bank deposits as savings of households have risen to 4.4 percent of incomes as of June from 1.7 percent in 2007, the data show.

“Every bank is looking for a way to increase their yield,” said Mike Pearce, president of Bank of The West, whose company has been purchasing government securities after deposits grew faster than loans in 2010 and 2011. Instead of earning the Federal Funds rate of zero to 0.25 percent on the deposits, its bond holdings are yielding about 3.25 percent, he said.



Treasury holdings reached $500 billion, the highest since June 2011, even with interest rates minus inflation for benchmark 10-year notes of 0.38 percent, compared to the average of 1.26 percent over the past decade.

The benchmark notes will yield 1.60 percent by the end of September, below June's projection of 1.90 percent, median estimates in separate Bloomberg surveys show. The year-end forecast fell to 1.65 percent from 2.1 percent.

Banks may be forced into more risky assets and lending practices if yields continue to hover at record low levels, said David Hendler, an analyst at financial research firm CreditSights Inc. in New York. Their net interest margin, a measure of lending profitability, has declined to 3.52 percent, the lowest since 2009, according to FDIC data.

“It doesn't pay to be aggressive right now if you are a bank, but continuing to buy bonds near these levels is not sustainable in the long run,” Hendler said.

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